Maybe So...Maybe Not
Jan 05, 2026
There's an old story that has followed me for years.
I heard it first through Alan Watts, but it didn't really land until life started testing me.
The story is simple.
A Chinese farmer lives with his son and a single horse...one day the horse runs away.
The neighbors come by and say it is terrible luck...the farmer replies…maybe so…maybe not...
A few days later the horse returns, bringing several wild horses with it...the neighbors celebrate his good fortune...the farmer says the same thing…maybe so…maybe not...
The son tries to tame one of the horses, falls off, and breaks his leg...the neighbors mourn his bad luck...the farmer again replies…maybe so…maybe not...
Then war breaks out...all the young men in the village are drafted except the farmer’s son because of his injury...the neighbors call it great luck...the farmer answers as he always does…maybe so…maybe not.
On the surface it sounds like a philosophy story...something clever...something calm.
But if you live long enough, you realize it's not philosophy at all...it's survival...it's perspective earned through experience.
I've lost jobs that felt like the end of the road...careers that collapsed without warning...plans that evaporated...
At the time it felt like failure...embarrassment...panic...fear...
Looking back now, I can see how many of those moments saved me from paths that would have cost me my family, my integrity, or my peace.
I've also had moments that looked like massive wins...big opportunities...big promises...big upside...
And some of those wins carried hidden costs I could not see at the time...stress...distance...misalignment...erosion of the things that mattered most.
When you're inside the moment, you don't know what it is yet...you only know how it feels...and feelings are terrible judges of long term outcomes.
That's where most people lose their footing...we label too fast...we call something a disaster before it finishes shaping us...we crown something a victory before we understand what it will demand from us...we decide life is against us or finally for us based on incomplete information.
The farmer was not passive...that part matters...he worked...he showed up...he handled what was in front of him...he just refused to panic over outcomes he did not yet understand.
That's not detachment...that's discipline...that's emotional regulation...that's leadership of the self.
I've noticed that the seasons that tested me the most were the ones where I tried hardest to control the narrative...to force meaning...to rush clarity.
Financial pressure...career uncertainty...waiting for answers that would not come on my timeline...
Those seasons felt brutal...heavy...lonely...
And yet, those were the seasons that stripped away illusions...they clarified what mattered...they forced me to slow down and listen...
At the time I would have called them setbacks...looking back, they were alignment.
Maybe so…maybe not.
That phrase has become a quiet anchor for me...when something goes sideways and my first instinct is panic…maybe so…maybe not.
When something goes right and my ego wants to declare victory…maybe so…maybe not.
Not as indifference...not as avoidance...as humility...humility to admit I do not see the whole picture yet.
Humility to trust that meaning often shows up later...there is peace in that posture...it doesn't mean you stop caring...it means you stop catastrophizing...it means you stop assigning permanent meaning to temporary moments.
You still act...you still decide...you still lead...you just stop pretending you are omniscient.
Life is not happening to you...it's shaping you...and often the thing you are resisting today will be the thing you're grateful for tomorrow.
Maybe so…maybe not.
If this story hits home, you're gonna love this next part...
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